Holder-cycle view

Holder Regime

One readable view of supply maturity, recent-holder cost basis and realized behaviour. It is context for the market cycle, not a trading signal.

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Current holder regime —
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Current holder regime & latest inputs
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STH / LTH supply—Recent supply relative to mature supply
Short-term supply——
STH MVRV—1.00 is aggregate cohort break-even
STH SOPR—1.00 is spent-coin break-even
Three lenses, one timelineHolder composition and recent-holder pressure

Supply share and STH/LTH ratio are two views of the same composition. MVRV measures aggregate cohort distance from cost basis; SOPR uses a separate recent-spending proxy.

Smoothing: trailing calendar-day mean of available observations, including the displayed day. Missing values stay gaps; no forward fill. Presentation only. Ranges end at the latest observation. NIM/USD uses unsmoothed daily closes from the Price chart on the right USD axis. The dashed composition ratio uses inset purple labels.

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Keep the atomic charts

The suite does not replace the detailed metrics. Use their full charts for history, variants and technical inspection.

How this Nimiq adaptation works

Supply and MVRV treat an address as short-term for 155 days after its latest observed movement; its remaining balance then matures into the long-term cohort. STH SOPR uses a separate 155-day weighted-average acquisition-age proxy for coins spent that day. These are complementary account-model adaptations, not one identical cohort classifier.

The composition measures cohort supply, not address count or buyer “control.” The deliberate omission is “STH supply in profit”: that requires an address-level cost-basis distribution, which is not inferred from this cohort aggregate. It will only be added when that distribution is computed directly.