Holder-cycle view

Holder Regime

One readable view of supply maturity, recent-holder cost basis and realized behaviour. It is context for the market cycle, not a trading signal.

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Current holder regime —
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Current holder regime & latest inputs
Transparent read

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STH / LTH supply—Recent supply relative to mature supply
Short-term supply——
STH MVRV—1.00 is aggregate cohort break-even
STH SOPR—1.00 is spent-coin break-even
Three lenses, one timelineHolder composition and recent-holder pressure

Choose a holder-cycle lens, then compare its standardized movement with the market.

Smooth: trailing mean of available daily observations; gaps stay missing. Drag horizontally to zoom; Reset / double-click / Esc restores the range. Arrow keys inspect.

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Keep the atomic charts

The suite does not replace the detailed metrics. Use their full charts for history, variants and technical inspection.

How this Nimiq adaptation works

Supply and MVRV treat an address as short-term for 155 days after its latest observed movement; its remaining balance then matures into the long-term cohort. STH SOPR uses a separate 155-day weighted-average acquisition-age proxy for coins spent that day. These are complementary account-model adaptations, not one identical cohort classifier.

The composition measures cohort supply, not address count or buyer “control.” The deliberate omission is “STH supply in profit”: that requires an address-level cost-basis distribution, which is not inferred from this cohort aggregate. It will only be added when that distribution is computed directly.

Normalized comparisons follow Social Pulse’s common-day population z-score convention: each selected indicator and comparison series is centered on its mean and divided by its standard deviation over matched UTC days in the selected range. Smoothing uses full-history warmup before normalization; zoom does not recalculate the baseline. USD circulating market cap comes from the Supply chart; BTC market cap is the same canonical Supply marketCapSats divided by 100,000,000. NIM dominance uses the stored daily percentage from the Price chart. Missing dates are not interpolated or carried forward. The normalization changes presentation only, not holder formulas.